What gets built on time
165 GW across 144 projects and 13 countries. Bars show the nominal pipeline, then shrink to confidence-weighted values — a 39% realisation rate.
| Country | Projects | GW | Confidence-Weighted GW | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 48 | 67.4 | 28.7 43% | Largest pipeline. 21 GW (31%) is floating — mostly ScotWind sites still at early stage, pulling the weighted ratio down. Near-term delivery strong via Dogger Bank, Hornsea 3, East Anglia TWO. CfD AR7 critical for mid-term. |
| Germany | 21 | 25.1 | 10.0 40% | Ambitious 30 GW by 2030 target. Strong near-term (He Dreiht, Nordseecluster, Windanker). Zero-subsidy auctions create merchant risk. N-10.1/10.2 auction failure a warning sign. |
| Netherlands | 15 | 19.0 | 4.9 26% | Steady government-led programme with annual tenders. IJmuiden Ver and Doordewind zones account for most future capacity. Low ratio reflects large untended pipeline with no developer yet. |
| Italy | 10 | 10.5 | 2.5 24% | Entirely floating pipeline — no project has reached FID. Permitting is slow and fragmented across regions. FER2 auction mechanism in development. High ambition, very early execution. |
| Poland | 10 | 9.3 | 6.7 73% | Highest confidence ratio in Europe. Phase I (5.9 GW) all under construction or at FID with CfDs. Phase II tenders underway. Strong government commitment and grid investment. |
| Sweden | 6 | 7.4 | 2.3 31% | No offtake mechanism — all projects are merchant or seeking PPAs. Permitting is long and politically contested. Galene (Vattenfall) most advanced. Large floating pipeline (Poseidon) unproven. |
| Denmark | 7 | 7.2 | 2.6 36% | Energy island concept restructured. Thor (1 GW) under construction. Hesselø and Bornholm delayed by procurement redesign. Nordsøen tenders open but COD post-2033. |
| Ireland | 8 | 6.1 | 2.8 46% | First offshore wind market — building consenting and grid from scratch. ORESS 1 and 2.1 awarded. MARA now operational as maritime regulator. Grid connection timelines the key bottleneck. |
| France | 9 | 5.8 | 2.5 43% | Methodical appels d’offres programme. AO4–AO10 tenders scheduled through 2030. Near-term delivery from Fécamp extension and Centre Manche. Floating pilots in Mediterranean (EolMed, EFGL). |
| Belgium | 3 | 3.5 | 0.8 23% | Princess Elisabeth Zone (3.5 GW) being tendered in three lots. Lot 1 tender cancelled July 2025, relaunch planned Q1 2026. Ventilus onshore grid infrastructure under construction. Compact zone, proven supply chain. |
| Norway | 3 | 2.5 | 0.8 30% | Floating-only pipeline. Utsira Nord state aid competition pending — viability depends on subsidy level. Sørlige Nordsjø II pivoted from bottom-fixed to hybrid. Ambitious but no FID yet. |
| Spain | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 15% | Maritime spatial plans still being finalised. Two floating demonstrators in pipeline. No commercial-scale tender framework yet. Regulatory clarity needed before projects can advance. |
| Greece | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 15% | Offshore wind law passed 2022. First lease areas designated in Aegean. Both projects at very early stage — no consents, no offtake mechanism defined. Timeline depends on regulatory buildout. |
| Developer (Top 15, pro rata) | Projects | GW | Confidence-Weighted GW | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RWE | 16 | 11.4 | 6.5 57% | Most diversified portfolio across UK, DE, NL, DK. Strong execution track record. Nordseecluster and Sofia under construction. Highest weighted GW of any developer. |
| TotalEnergies | 13 | 10.5 | 3.7 36% | Broad geographic spread (UK, DE, NL, DK). Large ScotWind exposure via Outer Dowsing, West of Orkney. Oil major pivoting capex to renewables. Several projects still pre-FID. |
| SSE Renewables | 10 | 9.8 | 4.5 46% | Anchor developer for Dogger Bank (JV with Equinor). Largest ScotWind portfolio via Berwick Bank and Ossian. Mix of near-term committed and longer-term speculative. |
| ScottishPower Renewables | 5 | 8.2 | 4.0 49% | Iberdrola subsidiary. East Anglia cluster is core pipeline (TWO and THREE under construction / FID). Strong CfD position. Concentrated in UK East Coast. |
| Ørsted | 7 | 8.0 | 4.9 62% | Highest confidence ratio among top 5. Hornsea 3 (2.9 GW) under construction. Selective portfolio after exiting several early-stage positions. Focus on execution over pipeline volume. |
| Nadara | 10 | 7.2 | 1.4 20% | Formerly BlueFloat Energy / Renantis. Large ScotWind floating portfolio (Bellrock, Broadshore, Stromar). No project at FID. Pipeline is ambitious but early-stage across the board. |
| Vattenfall | 8 | 5.7 | 2.6 45% | Exited Norfolk Boreas after cost overruns. Remaining portfolio in NL (IJmuiden Ver, Hollandse Kust West) and SE (Galene). Government-owned, strategy under review. |
| Equinor | 7 | 5.0 | 2.4 49% | Dogger Bank JV partner (with SSE). Norwegian floating pipeline via Utsira Nord and Trollvind. Experienced operator but floating projects all pre-FID pending state aid decisions. |
| Skyborn Renewables | 3 | 4.8 | 1.7 35% | German developer (formerly Parkwind acquired). Focused on Baltic and North Sea. Arcadis Ost 2 in Baltic, plus German North Sea pipeline. Moderate-stage portfolio. |
| BP | 2 | 4.0 | 1.5 38% | Morgan and Mona projects in Irish Sea (JV with EnBW). Scaled back renewables ambition in 2024 strategy reset. Both projects at pre-FID with CfD AR6 allocation. |
| CIP | 11 | 3.8 | 1.4 36% | Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners. Diversified across UK, NL, NO, IT via JVs. Typically minority partner. Ossian (with SSE), IJmuiden Ver Beta (with Vattenfall), Pentland floating demo. |
| Renexia | 1 | 2.8 | 0.6 22% | Italian developer. Med Wind (2.8 GW) floating project in the Strait of Sicily. One of the largest single-site floating proposals globally. Very early stage, no offtake secured. |
| PGE | 4 | 2.4 | 1.5 62% | Polish state utility. Baltica 2 and 3 under construction (JV with Ørsted). Phase II projects in pipeline. Highest delivery confidence among mid-tier developers. Strong government backing. |
| JERA Nex | 2 | 2.2 | 0.8 38% | Japanese utility’s European arm (JV with BP on some projects). Entering European offshore wind via UK pipeline. Morven and Bowdun in Scotland. Building execution capability. |
| EnBW | 3 | 2.2 | 1.0 43% | German utility. He Dreiht (960 MW) under construction, COD 2026. Morgan/Mona JV with BP in UK. Proven track record from Hohe See and Albatros. Disciplined pipeline. |
| Project | Country | Developer | MW | Expected COD | Turbine | Foundation | Offtake | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltic Power | Poland | Orlen (51%) / Northland Power (49%) | 1,140 | 2026 | Vestas V236-15.0 MW | Monopile | Polish CfD Phase I (PLN 319.60/MWh, 25… | 97Committed |
| Ecowende (Hollandse Kust West Site VI) | Netherlands | Shell (60%) / Chubu Electric Power… | 760 | 2026-Q4 | Vestas V236-15.0 MW | Monopile | Zero-subsidy (merchant/PPA) | 96Committed |
| East Anglia THREE | United Kingdom | ScottishPower Renewables (Iberdrol… | 1,400 | 2026 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | Monopile | CfD AR4 (£37.35/MWh) | 95Committed |
| He Dreiht | Germany | EnBW (50.1%) / Allianz Capital Par… | 960 | 2026-Q2 | Vestas V236-15.0 MW | Monopile | Zero-subsidy auction + PPAs (Amazon 35… | 95Committed |
| Borkum Riffgrund 3 | Germany | Ørsted (50%) / Nuveen Infrastructu… | 913 | 2026-Q1 | Siemens Gamesa SG 11.0-200 DD | Monopile | Zero-subsidy + PPAs (Amazon 350 MW, BA… | 95Committed |
| Dogger Bank B | United Kingdom | SSE Renewables (40%), Equinor (40%… | 1,200 | 2026 | GE Haliade-X | Monopile | CfD 2019 (£41.61/MWh) | 92Committed |
| Dieppe-Le Treport | France | Ocean Winds (ENGIE/EDPR JV, 31%), … | 496 | 2026-Q4 | Siemens Gamesa SG 8.0-167 DD | Jacket | AO2 appel d'offres (20-year tariff wit… | 92Committed |
| Sofia Offshore Wind Farm | United Kingdom | RWE | 1,400 | 2026 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-222 DD | Monopile | CfD 2019 auction | 89Committed |
| Windanker | Germany | Iberdrola (51%) / Kansai Electric … | 315 | 2026-Q4 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | Monopile | Zero-subsidy auction | 82Committed |
| Thor | Denmark | RWE (51%) / Norges Bank Investment… | 1,000 | 2027 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | Monopile | Danish state tender CfD (DKK 0.01 øre/… | 96Committed |
| Inch Cape | United Kingdom | Red Rock Power (ESB, China Three G… | 1,080 | 2027 | Vestas V236-15.0 MW | Monopile | CfD AR4 (£37.35/MWh) + AR6 top-up (266… | 95Committed |
| Hornsea 3 | United Kingdom | Ørsted | 2,955 | 2027 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | Monopile | CfD AR4 (£37.35/MWh) + AR6 top-up (1,0… | 92Committed |
| Courseulles-sur-Mer (Calvados) | France | EDF Renewables (42.5%), Enbridge (… | 448 | 2027-Q4 | Siemens Gamesa SWT-7.0-154 | Monopile | AO1 appel d'offres (20-year PPA grante… | 91Committed |
| Dogger Bank C | United Kingdom | SSE Renewables (40%), Equinor (40%… | 1,200 | 2027 | GE Haliade-X 14MW | Monopile | CfD 2019 (£41.61/MWh) | 88Committed |
| Nordseecluster A | Germany | RWE (51%) / Norges Bank Investment… | 660 | 2027 | Vestas V236-15.0 MW | Monopile | Zero-subsidy auction (N-3.8 and N-3.7) | 80Committed |
| Baltyk 2 | Poland | Equinor (50%) / Polenergia (50%) | 720 | 2028 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | Monopile | Polish CfD Phase I (PLN 319.60/MWh, 25… | 92Committed |
| Baltyk 3 | Poland | Equinor (50%) / Polenergia (50%) | 720 | 2028 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | Monopile | Polish CfD Phase I (PLN 319.60/MWh, 25… | 92Committed |
| East Anglia TWO | United Kingdom | ScottishPower Renewables (Iberdrol… | 960 | 2028 | Siemens Gamesa SG14-236 DD | Monopile | CfD AR6 | 87Committed |
| Baltica 2 | Poland | PGE (50%) / Orsted (50%) | 1,498 | 2028 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-222 DD | Monopile | Polish CfD Phase I (PLN 319.60/MWh, 25… | 83Committed |
| BC-Wind | Poland | Ocean Winds (EDPR / ENGIE JV) | 390 | 2028 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | Monopile | Polish CfD Phase I (PLN 319.60/MWh, 25… | 82Committed |
| OranjeWind (Hollandse Kust West Site VII) | Netherlands | RWE (50%) / TotalEnergies (50%) | 795 | 2028-Q1 | Vestas V236-15.0 MW | Monopile | Zero-subsidy (merchant/PPA + hydrogen) | 81Committed |
| Nordlicht 1 (N-7.2) | Germany | Vattenfall | 980 | 2028 | Vestas V236-15.0 MW | Monopile | Zero-subsidy auction (exercised step-i… | 65Expected |
| Nordlicht 2 (N-6.6) | Germany | Vattenfall | 630 | 2028 | Vestas V236-15.0 MW | Monopile | Zero-subsidy auction | 65Expected |
| Nordseecluster B | Germany | RWE (51%) / Norges Bank Investment… | 900 | 2029-Q1 | Vestas V236-15.0 MW | Monopile | Zero-subsidy auction (N-3.6 and N-3.5)… | 80Committed |
| Norfolk Vanguard West | United Kingdom | RWE (50%), KKR (50%) | 1,400 | 2029 | TBD | Monopile | CfD AR7 (£91.20/MWh) | 72Expected |
| Jammerland Bugt | Denmark | TotalEnergies (85%) / European Ene… | 240 | 2029 | TBD | Monopile | Open-door (merchant/PPA) | 68Expected |
| Lillebælt Syd | Denmark | TotalEnergies (72.25%) / SONFOR (1… | 165 | 2029 | TBD | Monopile | Open-door (merchant/PPA) | 67Expected |
| Galene | Sweden | OX2 | 400 | 2029 | TBD | Monopile | PPA (letter of intent with Varberg Ene… | 65Expected |
| Gennaker | Germany | Skyborn Renewables | 976 | 2029 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | Monopile | Zero-subsidy auction | 57Expected |
| IJmuiden Ver Beta Phase 1 (Zeevonk) | Netherlands | Vattenfall (50%) / Copenhagen Infr… | 1,000 | 2029 | TBD | Monopile | Zero-subsidy (merchant/hydrogen route) | 52Expected |
| Oriel Wind Farm | Ireland | Parkwind (JERA Nex) / ESB | 375 | 2029 | TBD | Monopile | None | 50Expected |
| Arklow Bank Wind Park Phase 2 | Ireland | SSE Renewables | 800 | 2029 | TBD | Monopile | None | 50Expected |
| East Anglia ONE North | United Kingdom | ScottishPower Renewables (Iberdrol… | 800 | 2030 | Siemens Gamesa SG14-236 DD | Monopile | CfD AR6 | 73Expected |
| Dunkirk (Dunkerque) | France | EDF Renewables (40%), Enbridge (30… | 600 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | AO3 appel d'offres (sub-EUR 50/MWh tar… | 71Expected |
| Baltica 3 | Poland | PGE (50%) / Orsted (50%) | 1,045 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | Polish CfD Phase I (PLN 319.60/MWh, 25… | 71Expected |
| Norfolk Vanguard East | United Kingdom | RWE (50%), KKR (50%) | 1,400 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | CfD AR7 (£91.20/MWh) | 70Expected |
| Codling Wind Park | Ireland | EDF Renewables (50%) / Fred. Olsen… | 1,300 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | ORESS 1 CfD (EUR 89.82/MWh) | 68Expected |
| Dublin Array | Ireland | RWE (with Saorgus Energy) | 824 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | ORESS 1 CfD (EUR ~86/MWh weighted avg) | 68Expected |
| North Irish Sea Array (NISA) | Ireland | Statkraft (50%) / Copenhagen Infra… | 500 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | ORESS 1 CfD (EUR ~86/MWh weighted avg) | 67Expected |
| Erebus | United Kingdom | Blue Gem Wind (Simply Blue Group, … | 100 | 2030 | TBD | Floating | CfD AR7 (£216.49/MWh) | 61Expected |
| Pentland | United Kingdom | CIP (majority), Hexicon, Eurus Ene… | 100 | 2030 | TBD | Floating | CfD AR7 (£216.49/MWh, 92.5 MW) | 61Expected |
| IJmuiden Ver Alpha (Noordzeker) | Netherlands | SSE Renewables (50%) / APG on beha… | 2,000 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | Zero-subsidy (merchant route) | 53Expected |
| Rampion 2 | United Kingdom | RWE (50.1%), Macquarie (25%), Enbr… | 1,200 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | None | 50Expected |
| Morecambe | United Kingdom | Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners | 480 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | None | 48Expected |
| Five Estuaries | United Kingdom | RWE (33.33%), Macquarie (25%), ESB… | 1,080 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | None | 47Expected |
| Seagreen 1A | United Kingdom | SSE Renewables (49%), TotalEnergie… | 500 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | None | 47Expected |
| Mona | United Kingdom | JERA Nex bp (100%) | 1,500 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | None | 47Expected |
| Outer Dowsing | United Kingdom | TotalEnergies (50%), Corio Generat… | 1,500 | 2030 | TBD | Monopile | None | 46Expected |
| N-11.1 | Germany | BP | 2,000 | 2030 | TBD | TBD | Dynamic bidding auction 2023 (EUR 1.83… | 38Speculative |
| N-11.2 | Germany | TotalEnergies | 1,500 | 2030 | TBD | TBD | Dynamic bidding auction 2024 (EUR 1.95… | 38Speculative |
| O-2.2 | Germany | TotalEnergies | 1,000 | 2030 | TBD | TBD | Dynamic bidding auction 2023 (EUR 2.07… | 38Speculative |
| N-12.1 | Germany | TotalEnergies | 2,000 | 2030 | TBD | TBD | Dynamic bidding auction 2023 (EUR 3.75… | 37Speculative |
| N-12.2 | Germany | BP | 2,000 | 2030 | TBD | TBD | Dynamic bidding auction 2023 (EUR 3.12… | 37Speculative |
| N-12.3 | Germany | EnBW | 1,000 | 2030 | TBD | TBD | Dynamic bidding auction 2024 (EUR 1.06… | 37Speculative |
| N-9.3 (Waterekke) | Germany | Luxcara (Waterekke Energy GmbH) | 1,500 | 2030 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | TBD | Zero-subsidy auction (August 2024, qua… | 23Speculative |
| N-6.7 (Waterkant) | Germany | Luxcara (Waterkant Energy GmbH) | 295 | 2030 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | TBD | Zero-subsidy auction (summer 2023) | 23Speculative |
| IJmuiden Ver Gamma-B | Netherlands | TBD (tender postponed) | 1,000 | 2030 | TBD | TBD | None (tender postponed) | 10Speculative |
| Nederwiek I-B | Netherlands | TBD (tender postponed) | 1,000 | 2030 | TBD | TBD | None (tender postponed) | 6Speculative |
| Awel y Môr | United Kingdom | RWE (60%), Stadtwerke München (30%… | 775 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | CfD AR7 (£91.20/MWh) | 67Expected |
| Berwick Bank Phase B | United Kingdom | SSE Renewables | 1,380 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | CfD AR7 (£89.49/MWh) | 66Expected |
| Dogger Bank South West | United Kingdom | RWE (51%) & Masdar (49%) | 1,500 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | CfD AR7 (£91.20/MWh) | 52Expected |
| Green Volt | United Kingdom | Flotation Energy (50%), Vårgrønn (… | 560 | 2031 | TBD | Floating | CfD AR6 (400MW at £139.93/MWh) | 51Expected |
| Kattegat Syd | Sweden | Vattenfall | 1,200 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | None | 50Expected |
| Norfolk Boreas | United Kingdom | RWE | 1,400 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | None | 44Speculative |
| Morven (North & South) | United Kingdom | Morven Offshore Wind (EnBW, JERA N… | 2,900 | 2031 | TBD | TBD | None | 42Speculative |
| Centre Manche 1 | France | EDF Renewables / Maple Power (CPP … | 1,000 | 2031 | TBD | Jacket | AO4 appel d'offres (awarded March 2023) | 41Speculative |
| IJmuiden Ver Gamma-A | Netherlands | TBD (tender September 2026) | 1,000 | 2031 | TBD | TBD | SDE++ subsidy tender (max EUR 104/MWh) | 40Speculative |
| Storgrundet | Sweden | Skyborn Renewables | 1,000 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | None | 40Speculative |
| 7SeasMed | Italy | Copenhagen Offshore Partners (COP)… | 250 | 2031 | TBD (Saipem STAR 1 floating platform selected) | Floating | Awaiting FER 2 auction | 40Speculative |
| Barium Bay | Italy | Galileo Green Energy / Hope Group … | 1,110 | 2031 | TBD | Floating | Awaiting FER 2 auction | 40Speculative |
| Eoliennes Flottantes d'Occitanie (EFLO - Narbonnaise) | France | Ocean Winds (ENGIE/EDPR JV) / Banq… | 250 | 2031 | TBD | Floating | AO6 appel d'offres (EUR 85.9/MWh bench… | 39Speculative |
| Pennavel (Bretagne Sud) | France | Elicio / BayWa r.e. | 250 | 2031 | TBD | Floating | AO5 appel d'offres (EUR 86.45/MWh, 20-… | 37Speculative |
| North Falls | United Kingdom | SSE Renewables (50%), RWE (50%) | 1,000 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | None | 34Speculative |
| Salamander | United Kingdom | Odfjell Oceanwind (80%), Simply Bl… | 100 | 2031 | TBD | Floating | None | 33Speculative |
| Eoliennes Mediterranee Grand Large (Golfe de Fos) | France | EDF Renewables / Maple Power (CPP … | 250 | 2031 | TBD | Floating | AO6 appel d'offres (awarded December 2… | 32Speculative |
| Cenos | United Kingdom | Flotation Energy (50%), Vårgrønn (… | 1,400 | 2031 | TBD | Floating | None | 25Speculative |
| Hornsea 4 | United Kingdom | Ørsted | 2,400 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | CfD AR6 (£58.87/MWh) - returned | 22On Hold |
| N-9.1 | Germany | RWE (50%) / TotalEnergies (50%) | 2,000 | 2031 | TBD | TBD | Zero-subsidy auction (August 2024) | 21Speculative |
| Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 1 (Noordhinder Noord) | Belgium | TBD — tender relaunched Q1 2026. K… | 700 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | None — Belgian domain concession tende… | 20Speculative |
| Morgan | United Kingdom | JERA Nex bp (50%), EnBW (50%) | 1,500 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | None | 19On Hold |
| PPC Alexandroupolis Pilot | Greece | PPC Renewables (Public Power Corpo… | 216 | 2031 | TBD | Jacket | None | 16Speculative |
| Nederwiek I-A | Netherlands | TBD (tender failed October 2025, r… | 1,000 | 2031 | TBD | TBD | None (zero-subsidy tender attracted ze… | 15Speculative |
| Alexandroupolis Offshore Wind Farm | Greece | TERNA Energy (Masdar) (50%) / Moto… | 400 | 2031 | TBD | TBD | None | 15Speculative |
| Swedish Kriegers Flak | Sweden | Vattenfall | 640 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | None | 13On Hold |
| Bore Array | Ireland | Statkraft / Copenhagen Infrastruct… | 900 | 2031 | TBD | TBD | None | 12Speculative |
| Ten noorden van de Waddeneilanden I | Netherlands | TBD (tender planned 2027) | 700 | 2031 | TBD | TBD | None (tender not yet opened) | 10Speculative |
| Nederwiek III | Netherlands | TBD (tender planned 2027) | 2,000 | 2031 | TBD | TBD | None (tender not yet opened) | 9Speculative |
| Oleron 1 (Sud-Atlantique) | France | TBD (AO7 tender failed - no bids r… | 1,000 | 2031 | TBD | TBD | AO7 appel d'offres - FAILED (no bids r… | 5On Hold |
| Clogherhead Offshore Wind Farm | Ireland | Parkwind (JERA Nex) / ESB | 500 | 2031 | TBD | Monopile | None — awaiting DMAP designation and f… | 0On Hold |
| F.E.W. Baltic II | Poland | PGE (acquiring from RWE, transacti… | 350 | 2032 | Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD | Monopile | Polish CfD Phase I (PLN 319.60/MWh, 25… | 68Expected |
| Baltyk 1 | Poland | Equinor (50%) / Polenergia (50%) | 1,560 | 2032 | TBD | Monopile | Polish CfD Phase II auction (PLN 492.3… | 56Expected |
| Baltic East | Poland | Orlen Neptun (Orlen Group) | 900 | 2032 | TBD | Monopile | Polish CfD Phase II auction (PLN 476.8… | 55Expected |
| Dogger Bank South East | United Kingdom | RWE (51%) & Masdar (49%) | 1,500 | 2032 | TBD | Monopile | CfD AR7 (£91.20/MWh) | 51Expected |
| IJmuiden Ver Beta Phase 2 (Zeevonk) | Netherlands | Vattenfall (50%) / Copenhagen Infr… | 1,000 | 2032 | TBD | Monopile | Zero-subsidy (merchant/hydrogen route) | 48Expected |
| Agnes Romagna 1 | Italy | Agnes S.p.A. (Saipem / QINT'X cons… | 200 | 2032 | TBD | Jacket | Awaiting FER 2 auction | 45Expected |
| Agnes Romagna 2 | Italy | Agnes S.p.A. (Saipem / QINT'X cons… | 400 | 2032 | TBD | Jacket | Awaiting FER 2 auction | 45Expected |
| Sørlige Nordsjø II (Phase 1) | Norway | Ventyr (Parkwind/JERA Nex + Ingka … | 1,500 | 2032 | TBD (15-18 MW class, FEED underway) | Monopile | CfD with Norwegian state (115 ore/kWh … | 44Speculative |
| Baltica 9 | Poland | PGE | 975 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | Polish CfD Phase II auction (PLN 489.0… | 41Speculative |
| N-9.4 | Germany | TotalEnergies (Offshore Wind One G… | 1,000 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | Price-only auction June 2025 (EUR 180 … | 35Speculative |
| Caledonia | United Kingdom | Ocean Winds (EDPR 50%, ENGIE 50%) | 2,000 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | None | 27Speculative |
| Hesselø | Denmark | TBD (tender open, bids due 20 May … | 800 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | Two-sided CfD (state tender, ceiling D… | 26Speculative |
| Dogger Bank D | United Kingdom | SSE Renewables (50%), Equinor (50%) | 2,000 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | None | 25Speculative |
| Ossian | United Kingdom | SSE Renewables, CIP, Marubeni | 3,610 | 2032 | TBD | Floating | None | 25Speculative |
| Nordsøen Midt | Denmark | TBD (tender open, bids due spring … | 1,000 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | Two-sided CfD (state tender, ceiling D… | 25Speculative |
| Fyrskeppet | Sweden | Skyborn Renewables | 2,800 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | None | 25Speculative |
| Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 2 (Noordhinder Zuid) | Belgium | TBD — tender expected 2026-2027 | 1,400 | 2032 | TBD | Monopile | Domain concession (LCOE-based) — tende… | 24Speculative |
| Kailia Energia | Italy | Nadara (formerly Renantis/BlueFloa… | 1,170 | 2032 | TBD | Floating | None | 24Speculative |
| Odra Energia | Italy | Nadara (formerly Renantis/BlueFloa… | 1,300 | 2032 | TBD | Floating | None | 24Speculative |
| MedWind | Italy | Renexia S.p.A. (Toto Holding Group) | 2,800 | 2032 | Mingyang Smart Energy 18.8 MW (MoU signed August 2024) | Floating | None | 22Speculative |
| Ichnusa Wind Power | Italy | Copenhagen Offshore Partners (COP)… | 504 | 2032 | TBD (Saipem STAR 1 floating platform) | Floating | None | 21Speculative |
| N-9.2 | Germany | RWE (50%) / TotalEnergies (50%) | 2,000 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | Zero-subsidy auction (August 2024) | 20Speculative |
| Talisk (Magnora) | United Kingdom | Magnora Offshore Wind, TechnipFMC | 495 | 2032 | TBD | Floating | None | 18Speculative |
| Parc Tramuntana (Phase 1) | Spain | BlueFloat Energy (33.3%) / Plenitu… | 500 | 2032 | TBD | Floating | None (awaiting first Spanish offshore … | 15Speculative |
| San Borondon | Spain | Iberdrola | 238 | 2032 | TBD | Floating | None (awaiting first Spanish offshore … | 15Speculative |
| Hollandse Kust West Site VIII | Netherlands | TBD (tender planned 2026-2027) | 700 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | None (tender not yet opened) | 11Speculative |
| Nederwiek II | Netherlands | TBD (tender planned 2027) | 2,000 | 2032 | TBD | TBD | None (tender not yet opened) | 8Speculative |
| Doordewind I | Netherlands | TBD (tender planned 2027) | 2,000 | 2032-Q4 | TBD | TBD | None (tender not yet opened) | 8Speculative |
| Nereus | Italy | BlueFloat Energy / Nadara | 1,800 | 2032 | TBD | Floating | None | 7Speculative |
| Muir Mhor | United Kingdom | Vattenfall (50%), Fred Olsen Seawi… | 1,005 | 2033 | TBD | Floating | None | 36Speculative |
| Berwick Bank (Remaining Phases) | United Kingdom | SSE Renewables | 2,720 | 2033 | TBD | Monopile | None | 34Speculative |
| Centre Manche 2 | France | TotalEnergies / RWE | 1,500 | 2033 | TBD | TBD | AO8 appel d'offres (awarded September … | 32Speculative |
| Bowdun | United Kingdom | Thistle Wind Partners (DEME, Qair,… | 1,008 | 2033 | TBD | TBD | None | 28Speculative |
| MachairWind | United Kingdom | ScottishPower Renewables | 2,000 | 2033 | TBD | Monopile | None | 26Speculative |
| Ayre | United Kingdom | Thistle Wind Partners (DEME, Qair,… | 1,000 | 2033 | TBD | Floating | None | 26Speculative |
| MarramWind | United Kingdom | ScottishPower Renewables (100%) | 3,000 | 2033 | TBD | Floating | None | 24Speculative |
| Buchan | United Kingdom | BayWa, Ideol, Elicio | 960 | 2033 | TBD | Floating | None | 24Speculative |
| Bornholm Energy Island | Denmark | TBD (joint DK-DE tender planned sp… | 3,000 | 2033 | TBD | TBD | State tender (DK-DE joint framework, t… | 23Speculative |
| Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 3 (Fairybank) | Belgium | TBD — tender expected 2027-2028 | 1,400 | 2033 | TBD | Monopile | Domain concession (LCOE-based) — tende… | 23Speculative |
| Tibula Energia | Italy | Nadara (formerly Falck Renewables/… | 975 | 2033 | TBD | Floating | None | 23Speculative |
| Stromar | United Kingdom | Ørsted, Nadara (formerly Renantis/… | 1,500 | 2033 | TBD | Floating | None | 22Speculative |
| Bellrock | United Kingdom | Nadara | 1,800 | 2033 | TBD | Floating | None | 19Speculative |
| Broadshore Hub | United Kingdom | Nadara (formerly BlueFloat Energy,… | 1,100 | 2033 | TBD | Floating | None | 16Speculative |
| West of Orkney | United Kingdom | TotalEnergies, Corio Generation, R… | 2,000 | 2033 | TBD | Monopile | None | 15On Hold |
| Doordewind II | Netherlands | TBD (no tender date set) | 2,000 | 2033 | TBD | TBD | None (no tender scheduled) | 3Speculative |
| N-10.1 | Germany | TBD | 2,000 | 2033 | TBD | TBD | None (auction failed) | 0On Hold |
| N-10.2 | Germany | TBD | 500 | 2033 | TBD | TBD | None (auction failed) | 0On Hold |
| Nordsøen Syd | Denmark | TBD (tender open, bids due autumn … | 1,000 | 2034 | TBD | TBD | Two-sided CfD (state tender, ceiling D… | 23Speculative |
| Poseidon | Sweden | Vattenfall (majority) / Zephyr Vind | 1,400 | 2034 | TBD | Floating | None | 20Speculative |
| Utsira Nord (Area 1 - Equinor/Vargronn) | Norway | Equinor Utsira Nord AS / Vårgronn … | 500 | 2034 | TBD | Floating | State aid competition planned 2028-202… | 10Speculative |
| Utsira Nord (Area 2 - Harald Harfagre) | Norway | Deep Wind Offshore Norway AS / EDF… | 500 | 2034 | TBD | Floating | State aid competition planned 2028-202… | 10Speculative |
| Tonn Nua | Ireland | Helvic Head Offshore Wind DAC (ESB… | 900 | 2035 | TBD | Monopile | ORESS 2.1 CfD (EUR 98.72/MWh, two-way,… | 35Speculative |
| Celtic Sea - Equinor Project | United Kingdom | Equinor | 1,500 | 2035 | TBD | Floating | None | 15Speculative |
| Gwynt Glas | United Kingdom | Gwynt Glas (EDF & ESB JV) | 1,500 | 2035 | TBD | Floating | None | 15Speculative |
| Celtic Sea - Ocean Winds Project | United Kingdom | Ocean Winds (EDPR 50%, ENGIE 50%) | 1,500 | 2035 | TBD | Floating | None | 8Speculative |
Each project receives a confidence score from 0 to 100 based on seven development parameters. The score is a probability-of-on-time-delivery proxy — not a prediction of success or failure for any individual project, but a portfolio-level weighting that, applied across 144 projects, converts a gross pipeline into a risk-adjusted demand signal. The confidence-weighted pipeline multiplies each project’s capacity by its normalised score, providing a more realistic view of future installations than raw capacity alone.
| Component | Range | Scoring tiers | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| FID Status | 0–40 |
40 Under Construction 30 FID reached 22 Pre-FID + full consent* 18 Pre-FID 12 Pipeline (named developer) 0 Pipeline (no developer) 5 On Hold * +4 consent maturity bonus when consents ≥ 12 pts (regulatory gate cleared, FID is a commercial decision)
|
The single strongest predictor. A project under construction has committed capital and contracted vessels — the probability of reaching COD is fundamentally different from a project still seeking FID. Pipeline projects with no identified developer score zero: a site without an entity to execute has no delivery capability. |
| Offtake | 0–30 |
30 CfD / PPA with price 25 Named contract (no price) 15 Zero-subsidy tender 10 Auction route available 5 Contract returned 0 None Strings containing “awaiting”, “pending”, or “planned” are classified as auction route (10) or none (0), not as secured contracts.
|
Revenue certainty. A signed CfD or PPA with a published strike price is the clearest signal that a project can close financing. Zero-subsidy projects (e.g. German €0/MWh bids) have the right to build but must find merchant revenue or a corporate PPA, making delivery less certain. Projects in countries with active auction mechanisms receive partial credit for having a realistic path to offtake. |
| Consents | 0–15 |
15 Full consent granted 12 Marine / foreshore licence 7 Application submitted 4 Lease / seabed rights 3 Scoping / consultation 0 No information UC / FID projects auto-score 15 (consents implied). Full consent triggers +4 FID bonus for Pre-FID projects.
|
Permitting progress through national consenting regimes (DCO in UK, Planfeststellung in Germany, kavelbesluit in NL, etc.). Full consent means the project has passed its primary regulatory gate. Marine licence (e.g. Irish MAC) is partial — it permits site occupation but is not full planning approval. Lease/seabed rights indicate competitive process success. |
| Grid | −5…+5 |
+5 Grid secured / cable underway +2 Application / in queue 0 Unknown (neutral) −5 Explicitly absent |
Grid connection is a hard constraint — a project cannot export power without it. Secured connections (TEC accepted, cable contracts signed) are a strong positive signal. Unknown grid is scored neutral: absence of information is not evidence of absence, especially for early-stage projects where grid is typically secured later. Only confirmed absence (“no grid connection”) is penalised. |
| Time to COD | −5…+10 |
+10 2026 +8 2027 +5 2028 +3 2029 +1 2030 0 2031 −1 2032 −2 2033 −3 2034 −4 2035+ −5 TBD / unknown |
Temporal discounting. Near-term projects have committed supply chains, contracted vessels, and time-bound offtake — the execution path is concrete. Projects further out face compounding uncertainty: policy changes, cost inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, developer portfolio reprioritisation. A 2035 COD is more aspiration than plan. |
| Complexity | −12…−2 |
−2 Base risk (always applied) + Water depth 0 <30m −1 30–50m −3 >50m + Distance from shore 0 <50km −2 50–100km −3 >100km + Foundation type 0 Monopile −1 Jacket/GBS −2 TBD −4 Floating |
Physical and economic difficulty. Every project carries irreducible construction risk (−2 base) from weather windows, supply chain disruption, and contractor performance. Additional penalties compound for deeper water, greater distance to shore, and less mature foundation technology. Floating offshore wind carries the steepest penalty (−4) reflecting limited commercial track record and higher CAPEX uncertainty. |
| Staleness | −8…0 |
0 References to 2025/2026 −2 No year references −4 Only 2024 references −8 No recent news Exempt: projects with COD ≥ 2031 (5+ years out). Early-stage projects are quiet by nature.
|
Information recency. Active projects generate a steady cadence of press releases, regulatory filings, and contract awards. If a near-term project (COD before 2031) has gone silent — no news in the last 12–18 months — that is a meaningful negative signal suggesting stalled development, unresolved issues, or developer de-prioritisation. Far-future projects are exempt: silence is normal when the project is 5+ years from COD. |
The database covers all non-operational European offshore wind projects above 100 MW capacity. It was compiled through systematic web research across government registries, developer announcements, regulatory filings, and industry press. Primary sources include national energy agency databases (DESNZ, BSH, RVO, Energistyrelsen, CRE), Crown Estate / Crown Estate Scotland leasing portals, developer corporate disclosures and annual reports, and specialised offshore wind media (4C Offshore, Renews, offshoreWIND.biz, Wind Power Monthly).
Map polygons (lease area boundaries) are sourced from the EMODnet Human Activities WFS service (pan-European coverage) and the Crown Estate / Crown Estate Scotland ArcGIS FeatureServers for UK-specific sites. EEZ borders are from Marine Regions (VLIZ). Where no official polygon was available, a fallback boundary was generated from the project centroid coordinates.
Every project entry was cross-validated by Claude Opus 4.6 acting as a structured research agent. For each project, the agent independently verified capacity, developer, COD date, offtake status, and FID status against at least two independent sources. Where sources conflicted, the most recent filing or announcement was prioritised and discrepancies noted in the status_notes field. A separate adversarial review pass (red-hat critic) audited the dashboard for internal contradictions, stale data, and scoring anomalies.
The confidence scoring engine (v5) is fully deterministic: every score is computed from project attributes by formula, not assigned manually. Scoring logic is open and documented above. No scores have been manually adjusted — the goal is for the formula to be correct by design.